After a strong start and anticipation of a busy spring market, it’s safe to say the March real estate market did not turn out as we had hoped it would. Plans were put on hold, businesses forced to innovate, and health a top priority on everyones’ mind.
Despite the real estate statistics, analysis, and projections, the unprecedented impact from COVID-19 has shown us that we don’t always have a clear vision of the future. The good news is that never really have one. The best we can do is embrace uncertainty and use historical trends and current information to create a positive future outcome.
Below are some statistics from March 2020 compared to March 2019 that I always look at once they are released. At a glance, they show you how supply can influence our real estate market as the amount of active listings either increases or decreases from the previous month or year. There was a 7.5% decrease in active listings in March 2020 compared to March 2019. Active listings represents the total number of current listings at the end of the reporting month.
Below are the statistics released at months end from the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB):
March 2020 Net unconditional sales: 608 New listings: 1,084 Active listings: 2,252
March 2019 Net unconditional sales: 640 New listings: 1,284 Active listings: 2,435
Another common statistic I often look at is the ratio of total residential sales to total active residential listings which is then expressed as a percentage. It’s meant to be indicator of housing supply and demand. Furthermore, it provides a general overlook into the real estate market as a whole. The percentage is then classified into one of 3 categories: a buyers market, a sellers market, or a balanced market.
In a “buyers’ market” there is a downward pressure on prices (when the ratio of total sales to total residential listings goes below 10%). A “sellers’ market” is prevalent when there is an upward pressure on prices (when the percentage goes above 25%). Finally, a balanced market is when the percentage falls between 15% – 20% and there is little pressure on prices either way.
Currently, in March 2020 the percentage of total residential sales to total active residential listings is approximately 32%. While this may seem high, keep in mind we are coming down from March 2018 when the percentage was just above 50%.
Another statistic that I take into account are the median selling prices for single family homes, condos, and townhomes. The median price is the midpoint of all offers when displayed in order. Whereas, the average price is the total sales volume divided by number of units sold.
Single family homes greater Victoria
I consider the median selling price (instead of the average) because it is less influenced by extreme values when looking at a set of data and can help to portray a more accurate representation of housing prices. However, looking at the average selling price isn’t wrong and could also be useful.
Thank you for reading along!
** all data and statistics are from the Victoria Real Estate Board. You can find further information here: https://www.vreb.org/current-statistics
*Disclaimer: The topics of discussion, content and resources on this website are general information that may not be the right solution or advice for you specifically. Not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.
*Stock images from Social Squares
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April 3, 2020